2nd-Annual College Football Playoff What If?

  Hello, fans. How are you all doing? I hope you're doing well! We're getting close to bowl season, as the first couple games will be kicking off within a week.  First off, I'd encourage you all to join my Bowl Pick 'Em at ESPN.COM : http://games.espn.go.com/college-bowl-mania/en/group?groupID=19772 .  Good luck if you decide to come and take me on in the bowl picks!

With the most wonderful time of the year upon us in College Football, each season I like to re-imagine College Football's post-season as a 16 or 32 playoff team extravaganza.  Last year I posted what would happen based upon simulations of Whatifsports.com .  This year I'll be using a mixture of my own simulation engine and the numbers from What If Sports to decide who would win each game and who will move on to the next round.

First off let's establish what the bracket might look like in a 16 team playoff.

-Each Conference winner gets a bid.
-The rest would be seeded based upon BCS ranking.
- Sadly, Ohio State and Penn State will not be eligible.
- Sorry SEC, there is a maximum of 3 teams from 1 conference.

Overall Seeding:
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Oregon
5. Kansas State
6. Stanford
7. Georgia
8. Oklahoma
9. Florida State
10. Northern Illinois
11. Boise State
12. Louisville
13. Utah State
14. Wisconsin
15. Tulsa
16. Arkansas State

Creating first round match-ups as follows: (The first round would be home games)

(16) Arkansas State @ (1) Notre Dame

(15) Tulsa @ (2) Alabama

(14) Wisconsin @ (3) Florida

(13) Utah State @ (4) Oregon

(12) Louisville @ (5) Kansas State

(11) Boise State @ (6) Stanford

(10) Northern Illinois @ (7) Georgia

(9) Florida State @ (8) Oklahoma

These would be some seriously intriguing match-ups! Let's see what we predict would happen!

Notre Dame 34, Ark State 9

Coming into this match-up, not many gave the champions of the Sun Belt much of a chance against a juggernaut of a Notre Dame defense.  Pundits proved to be right on as Notre Dame took control early in this one. The Irish were led by Theo Riddick, who had 24 carries for 100 yards.  QB Everett Gholson had a decent day passing with 2 TD's, including a 3-yard strike to TE Tyler Eiffert. Arkansas State actually scored first with a FG early, but never led again.

Alabam 39, Tulsa 3

The Crimson Tide showed once again why they are one of the most dominating teams in the country with a very convincing win over Tulsa, the champions of Conference USA.  The Tide had 2 rushers go over the 100 yard mark as Lacy rushed for 152 yards while Yeldon also had 110 and a TD.

Florida 37, Wisconsin 18

Some pundits believed the Badgers had a shot in this game.  They came in with 5 losses on the season already, but were just coming off of a 70-24 smashing of Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship game. Unfortunately though, Florida was just too much for the Badgers in this one. Florida took first blood by scoring with 4:24 remaining in the first on a Mike Gillislee TD scamper.  The Gators never looked back after that, leading 28-10 at halftime.  The Gators slowed Montee Ball to his worst performance of the year, the Sr. RB had only 35 yards on 24 carries.

Oregon 28, Utah State 10

Utah State brought some hope into this game.  The champions of the WAC came into the game with a 10-2 record but may have had one of the tougher draws of the tournament thus far though.  Kenjon Barner, Deanthony Thomas and Marcus Mariota was just too much on the ground for the Aggies. The Ducks were led by RB Barner, who had 198 yards and 2 TD runs.

Louisville 6, Kansas State 36

Although Kansas State QB Collin Klein wasn't able to bring home the Heisman trophy, it didn't slow him and his Wildcats down on a quest for the National Championship trophy.  Louisville was no match for the Wildcats, who were led by a very tough defensive effort.  Klein completed all three of his passes for a total of 71 yards, and also ran for a TD.

Boise State 7, Stanford 31

In another match-up that proved to be more hype than real excitement, Stanford smashed Boise State.  The Cardinal were led by Stephan Taylor at RB, who had 31 carries for 197 yards.

Northern Illinois 16, Georgia 13

NIU QB Jordan Lynch was one of the most phenomenal players not only in the MAC, but in the nation this past season in College Football. And a tough draw in round 1 of this year's playoffs made many believe the cinderella story would come to an end.  This was not true, however.  As Lynch led his Huskies to an upset over the Bulldogs in round 1.  Lynch's late 4th quarter TD run, and inspired play by the young defense led to the biggest upset in Jimbo Says! college football playoff history.

Oklahoma 34, Florida State 24

In our second upset of the first round, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones gave a very gutsy performance, despite his 2 INTs, he also threw 2 TD's leading to an upset of the Seminoles.


Here is a look at our upcoming Round 2 match-ups! I'll be posting the results in the next few days!

Elite Eight Pairings!
(1) Notre Dame vs (8) Oklahoma
(4) Oregon vs (5) Kansas State

(2) Alabama vs (10) Northern Illinois
(3) Florida vs (6) Stanford

Ohio State 2002 Defense vs Notre Dame 2012 Defense

 
2012 Irish D or the 2002 Silver Bullets?
    All season this year, I've been in the camp of the Notre Dame Fightin' Irish. I'm a stat guy, and this team has walked the walk statistically on the defensive side of the ball.  This is the most efficient football team based on Jimbo's Defense Rating that I devised this season. It's absolutely been a special season and I have recognized that since pretty early on.  The Irish have a quality of being able to win games, even when they don't play to the best of their ability. It certainly reminds of a Craig Krenzel-led Buckeye Squad that took home the crystal football. The Irish will have their chance in early 2013 to match that Ohio State team and win another National Title for its storied program.  Until then however, there are a lot of interesting discussions to be had.  Stay tuned to Jimbo Says! for other pieces similar to this one.  I'll probably be writing a prediction of Ohio State vs Notre Dame if they played this year as well as how a possible playoff system would go down.

  Let's start off with the ND defense of this year. They certainly pass the look-test. Led by Senior LB Manti T'eo, the Irish have been nothing short of dominant throughout the season.  Allowing only 6 points to Michigan, 13 to Stanford, 13 to Oklahoma and only 13 to USC. Coming into the season, this team's strength of schedule was hailed as one of the toughest in the country. While it still undoubtedly remains top-25 in the country, with the disappointing seasons of Oklahoma, USC, Michigan and Michigan State, it seemed to take away a little luster from the Irish schedule.  Here are some of the key stats for the ND Defense:

ND Defense
Rush Yds	92.42	(5th)
Pass Yds	194.83	(22nd)
Total Yds	287.25	(6th)
Points	10.33	(2nd)

Even at first glance, this ND team was extremely impressive on the defensive side of the ball.  Team's that they played against averaged the following on offense:

ND's Opponent's offense average
Rush Off	158.49
Pass Off	240.29
PPG	24.5

The Irish were unbelievable at shutting team's offenses down and keeping them below their season averages. Still, Notre Dame was not the most opportunistic team in the country when it came to forcing turnovers.

ND Defense
Sacks	33	(19th)
INT	16	(T-14th)
Fumbles rec.	7
Takeaways	23	(T-37th)

Still, maybe the most staggering statistic and the strong point of the Notre Dame defense was their Red Zone defense.  This was epitomized by their multiple goal line stands against USC last weekend. Here are some of the key stats:

ND Defense in the Red Zone
% of scores	64.00%	5th
RZ points	95
RZ Drives	33
RZ Tds	8
RZ Fgs	13
Rush TD Allowed	2
Pass TD Allowed	7

The 2 Rush TD allowed all season is absolutely unbelievable.

Okay let's run through and compare the OSU 2002 Defense.

These Ohio State Buckeyes passed the look test as well. There were many future NFL players on this unit, including: LB Matt Wilhelm, S Mike Doss, DT Kenny Peterson, LB Cie Grant, DE Will Smith, CB Chris Gamble as well as young LB's Bobby Carpenter and A.J. Hawk. The Buckeyes run defense was unbelievable that season,  but let's take a look at the numbers a little closer:

OSU 2002 Defense
Rush Yds	77.7	(3rd)
Pass Yds	243.1	(95th)
Total Yds	320.8	(23rd)
Points	13.1	(2nd)

Although the NCAA didn't record the sacks on this team, you can bet they were top 10 in the country in it with players like Will Smith and Kenny Peterson on the defensive line:

Sacks	NCAA didn't archive this, but it was very high
INT	18	(23rd)
Fumbles rec.	12	(53rd)
Takeaways	30	(33rd)

Ohio State's Red Zone statistics from that season are also not available, but here are a few other misc. stats.

Rush TD Allowed	5	(1st)
Pass TD Allowed	14	(T-8th)
Total TD Allowed	19	(T-1st)

Side by side comparison of both teams:

	Rush Yds	Rush Tds	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	Total Yds	Total Tds	Points/ Gm	Takeaways
ND	92.42	2	194.83	7	287.25	9	10.33	23
Ohio State	77.7	5	243.1	14	320.8	19	13.1	30

So as you can see, ND seems to be a little bit better statistically. Of course you must factor in strength of schedule and that's difficult to do.  Also, Ohio State ranked really well in 2002 in many of these, but it was a different year statistically for ND in 2012.  This is exemplified here:

National Rank
	Rush Yds	Rush Tds	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	Total Yds	Total Tds	Points/ Gm	Takeaways
ND	5th	1st	22nd	5th	6th	1st	2nd	T-38th
Ohio State	3rd	1st	95th	T-8th	23rd	T-1st	2nd	T-33rd

So if you look at it based on how these teams fit into their respective seasons, it changes things a little bit!  In my opinion, these two units are extremely similar, but I have to give a slight edge to the Irish this year because they are better against the pass and are unbelievably stout in the Red Zone. Ohio State was a little bit more opportunistic with turnovers, but these are 2 top-15 defenses of the last decade, any way you split this.  They can prove it all wrong or correct in the National Championship game this year on January 7, 2013!

Jimbo Says! NCAAF Rankings

This all based off of statistical analysis. I created a strength of schedule formula and an offensive and defensive efficiency formula. Mashed them together and sampled 20 teams.  Here is how they ranked out:

1	Florida	4.21	1	3.21
2	ND	2.87	0	2.87
3	Alabama	3.51	1	2.51
4	Ohio State	0.67	0	0.67
5	Georgia	0.98	1	-0.02
6	Texas A and M	1.98	2	-0.02
7	Kansas St.	0.91	1	-0.09
8	Clemson	0.72	1	-0.28
9	Oregon	0.67	1	-0.33
10	FSU	0.52	1	-0.48
11	South Car	1.51	2	-0.49
12	Stanford	1.51	2	-0.49
13	Rutgers	0.43	1	-0.57
14	Utah State	2.21	2	-0.6
15	Oregon State	1.34	2	-0.66
16	Cinci	2.09	3	-0.91
17	NIU	0.07	1	-0.93
18	Boise	0.47	2	-1.53
19	Nebraska	0.33	2	-1.67
20	Miss State	1.08	3	-1.92

Surprise team for me was Utah State. They have 2 narrow losses to Wisconsin and BYU, but statistically are one of the top 5 teams in the country.

Happy Post-thanksgiving football picks!

  Ever since I was pretty young, I loved to mess around with statistics.  Especially when it comes to sports statistics.  A friend of mine came to me with a challenge to create a system in which it predicts the score of College Football games in the FBS.  I decided that it seemed like a good idea to give this a shot.  This inspired me to create the "Jimbo System". After countless (and I really do mean countless) hours, this is what I came up with.  While I will not divulge the secret formulas I've created during this process, I'll give you all a little predictions for what to expect on Friday in the world of college football.

P.S. How exciting is it that we get two Saturday's of college football this weekend? We have 14 games on Friday, in addition to the usual Saturday slate.

Get out the leftovers, turn on the tube and make sure and have your Jimbo guide to picks for the weekend!

Ohio @ Kent State (-9.5)
11 AM on ESPNU

In Friday's feast of games, the Bobcats head to Kent to take on the Golden flashes.  The Bobcats haven't been good against the spread this year, but Tyler Tettleton and the Bobcats are due for a closer game.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Kent State	248	162	410
Ohio	153	302	455

Jimbo Says! Kent State 35, Ohio 28. 


Syracuse (-7) @ Temple
11 AM on ESPN 2

Both of these teams have been hot the last few weeks.  Syracuse had a solid win over a decent Missouri squad while Temple put up 60+ on Army. Temple can seriously run the ball, so it'll be up to Cuse QB Ryan Nassib and that Syracuse offense to keep up.  Temple still has MAC talent, although it is now a member of the Big East, I think Cuse will out gain Temple and go for a decent win.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Temple	197	127	324
Cuse	209	344	553

Jimbo Says! Syracuse 35, Temple 24


Nebraska @ Iowa (+15)
12 PM on ABC

The Hawkeyes have not lived up to expectations, and you can likely expect that trend to continue in this one. Nebraska is one of the hottest bowl-eligible BCS teams and is hoping to carry a big win into the post-season.  The Cornhuskers should not struggle to move the ball.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Iowa	124	145	269
Nebraska	268	233	501

Jimbo Says! Nebraska 35, Iowa 17

Ball State @ Miami (OH) (+7.5)
1PM Not televised

All you followers of the MACtion will unlikely not get to see this one on TV.  But don't fret, you probably aren't missing out on much. If Ball State plays to its abilities and can limit the passing attack of Miami.  They should roll in this one.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Miami (OH)	100	339	440
Ball St	292	280	572

Ball State 48, Miami (OH) 28

N. Illinois @ E. Michigan
1 PM Not televised (Online at ESPN3)

Some more MACtion for all you MAC-followers out there! This one is online at ESPN 3, but will not be televised.  In what I deem the "Compass Battle" (NORTHERN Illinois vs EASTERN Michigan, get it?!), NIU should roll in this one.  I will admit sometimes the yardage numbers get a little inflated and my computers say that NIU will go over 300 yards rushing?  Every time I try to tell myself that won't happen, I start thinking about the defense of that Eagles team, and what the heck! Who knows.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
E Michigan	146	180	326
NIU	344	232	576

NIU 49, EMU 17

Marshall @ East Carolina (-6)
2 PM on CBS

Touchdowns.  A lot of them.  The bigger news in this game is the petition that East Carolina has on the table to further split the Carolina States.  Could we have a third Carolina in the US?

Don't tell West Carolina.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
ECU	172	261	432
Marshall	146	398	544

Marshall 42, ECU 41


Buffalo @ Bowling Green (-9.5)
2 PM, Online at ESPN 3

In another MAC-tastic match-up.  Buffalo heads to BG to take on the Falcons. The Bulls are a tough team for me to peg, but expect BG to cover the spread narrowly.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
BGSU	156	186	342
Buffalo	151	155	306

Beer Guzzlers State University 24, Buffalo 14

LSU @ Arkansas (+11)
2:30 PM on CBS

What happened to the Razorbacks this season? Coming into the year there sure was a lot of hype surrounding this Arkansas team.  7 losses later, including an embarrassing loss to ULL, and Arkansas faces an imminent 8th against a solid Les Miles' coached team in the LSU Tigers.

LSU 38, Arkansas 17

Utah @ Colorado (+23.5)
3 PM on FX

Colorado is easily one of the worst teams I've watched play this season.  This is still a hard game to predict against the spread.  Utah has continued to be a letdown based upon the statistical projections that the system has given them.  We'll see what happens.  Will Colorado score? More importantly: They have football games on FX?  I was expecting to see Mark Wahlberg's shooter on the network at around 3 PM.  Oh well.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Colorado	90	170	261
Utah	184	221	405

Utah 42, Colorado 14


C. Michigan @ UMass (+11)
3 PM, Not televised

If you thought the horrible MAC words was over... you were correct. Because it's nearly 5 AM and I can't think of anymore words that start with MAC...  However, at 3 PM today, the MAC slate continues with a decent Central Michigan squad taking on one of the worst teams in FBS in UMass.

CMU 41, UMass 14

Washington @ Washington State (+13.5)
3:30 PM on Fox

A little rivalry action out of the PAC-12.  Mike Leech and his air attack offense for the Cougars seek their elusive third win of the year.  You know what they say: throw out the records in this rivalry! (I don't actually know if they say that about these two teams). Seriously, Washington probably covers, they've got a solid defense and the W. State program to me, seems in shambles at the moment.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Wash State	33	249	282
Washington	157	243	399

Washington 31, Washington State 14

West Virginia @ Iowa State (+1.5)
3:30 PM on ABC

I'm surprised West Virginia is the favorite in this game. Iowa State does seem to sometimes be overrated in the system though.  There low-turnover, good field position and defense seems to work well.  But what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? West Virginia can surely move the ball around, but since Geno Smith has come back to earth this season, he has turned the ball over quite frequently. I see Iowa State winning this ball game albeit getting out gained heavily by the Mountaineers offense.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Iowa St	121	314	435
W Virginia	156	400	556

Iowa State 35, W. Virginia 31

South Florida @ Cincinnati ( -13.5)
7 PM on ESPN

Cincinnati is seriously spelled very oddly in my opinion.  This is a very well put spread and makes this a tough call.  The Bearcats are a solid football team and should win this game, but I don't think by more than 2 or 3 scores.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Cinci	189	258	446
S Florida	157	250	407

Cinci 31, USF 17

Arizona State @ Arizona (-2.5)
10 PM on ESPN

The system really likes Arizona State.  So do I.  This is an evenly matched rivalry game so it should be a close one.  It's tough for me to call, but I'd take A-State in this one.

	Rushing	Passing	Total
Arizona	245	216	461
Ariz St	204	333	537

A State 42, Arizona 35


Well, that's all folks! Hope you enjoyed it. I'll be using my system to launch a top 25 ranking with in the next hour or so. Make sure and come back to check it out.

Thanks for reading :)

TC vs Norwalk + Playoff Tidbits

Hello all! Here are a few unofficial stats for the Tornadoes, some info on tonight's match-up vs Norwalk and some playoff tidbits for some area teams!

Tiffin Columbian Unofficial 2012 Statistics: (NOL Rank)

Points Per Game: 35.7 (3^rd)

Points Allowed Per Game: 13.9 (2^nd)

Total Yards Per Game: 364

Rush Yards Per Game: 236

Pass Yards Per Game: 128

Notable Performers:

Michael Rohrbach: over 1000 yards on 15 TDs and 7 INT. (55% completion)

Jack Jacoby: 1200 yards Rushing and 15 TDs

Ryan Lynch: 540 yards rushing and 6 TDs

Jordan Dye: 28 Catches for over 400 yards, 7 TDs

Donovan Walker: Threat on trick plays to run the ball, 2 rushing TDs and 4 Reception TDs.

Great play by the offensive line all season long.

NOL Standings
Week 9 Northern Ohio League Standings
Team	Wins	Losses	PF	PA
TC	9	0	321	125
Bellevue	8	1	366	105
Norwalk	7	2	343	167
Willard	4	5	134	171
Sandusky	3	6	136	303
Shelby	1	8	112	276

Playoff Scenarios: Division 2 Region 6 (Bolded are familiar teams)

Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 100%


Central Catholic (Toledo) 100%


Avon 100%


Columbian (Tiffin) 100%

Westlake 99%

Midview (Grafton) 99%

Perrysburg 92%

Highland (Medina) 70%

Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 34%

Norwalk 3%  (Must win to even have a chance to get in!!)

TC Tidbits: (Special thanks to fantastic50.net)

-       If TC wins tonight, they would clinch home-field advantage for week 1 of the postseason.

-       Even with a TC loss, still a 99% chance of a home game.

-       With a TC win they would likely be the first or second seed, with a loss they would fall between 2-5.

-       1st round opponents: Highland (Medina) 36%, Midview (Grafton) 20%, Perrysburg 12%, Westlake 12%, Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 10%

-       With a Columbian win and Toledo Whitmer victory over Toledo Central Catholic, that guarantees Tiffin Columbian the #1 seed in Division 2 Region 6

-       With a victory tonight, this would mark the 1^st undefeated season since 1987 for the Tornadoes.

-       TC has already clinched at least a share of the NOL title. Their 10^th NOL title in the last 12 years

-       List of all time leaders of NOL champions:

Bellevue 23

Shelby 20

TC 19

Galion 9

Willard & Upper 5

Bucyrus 4

Fostoria & Norwalk 2

Sandusky 1

Other NOL schools in action tonight:

Willard (4-5) @ Shelby (1-8)

Bellevue (8-1) @ Sandusky (3-6)

Other notable games for playoff implications: (Bolded are teams who make playoffs with a victory tonight in D2 R6) (Underlined are teams who have already clinched their playoff berth):

Toledo Whitmer (9-0) @ Toledo Central Catholic (9-0)

Mansfield Senior (8-1) @ Mansfield Madison (8-1)

Westlake (8-1) @ Brecksville-Broadview Heights (5-4)

Avon (8-1) @ North Ridgeville (1-8)

Perrysburg (7-2) @ Maumee (6-3)

*Maumee has a shot at a playoff berth with a win and some help.

Interesting game facts:

-       Columbian faces Norwalk who is coached by Chris McFarland, a TC alum and former coach for the Tornadoes.

-       Coach Steve Gilbert is Columbian’s all time leading coach in wins with 137. Gilbert was 137-44 as the head coach at TC.  Coach Colatruglio is 30-5 in his three year tenure thus far.

-       It would take Colatruglio 14 years of consistent winning at this pace for him to tie Gilbert’s mark.

Norwalk Quick Info:

-       Norwalk is on a two-game losing streak, including a 24-0 loss last weekend against Willard (4-5). However, don’t be fooled, the Truckers still have talented players.

-       These players include:

-       WR Damius Peacock (9 Reception TDs)

-        WR Michael Finch (7 Reception TDs and leads the team in receiving yardage),

-       RB Breck Turner (who has over 900 yards and 14 rushing TDs)

-       QB Jake Fetherolf (21 TDs and is among the areas leaders in yards per game at near 230)

-       Norwalk has the 2^nd best Scoring Offense in the NOL.

-       Norwalk has the 3^rd best Scoring Defense in the NOL.

Last 10 games vs TC:

02: TC 41-7

03: TC 55-6

04: TC 45-8

05: TC 48-9

06: TC 48-3

07: TC 41-14

08: TC 49-0

09: TC 35-7

10: TC 49-7

11: TC 34-7

Current Streak: TC has won 19 in a row. (They have won the last 10 by a combined score of 445-68)

Tiffin Calvert Quick Info:

-       The Senecas control their own destiny.

-       With a victory over Hopewell-Loudon they are in the playoffs.

-       1st round opponents: Delphos St John'S 24%, St Paul (Norwalk) 21%, Mc Comb 20%, Leipsic 19%, St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 15%

-       Teams to root for tonight: Seneca East (Attica), Mohawk (Sycamore), Minster, Western Reserve (Collins), Cory-Rawson (Rawson)

-       With a loss tonight, 95% chance of playoff berth.

-       With a win tonight, 100% chance of playoff berth. (16% chance home game)